China Weather / CMA public service: July and August each had 130 landfalls, September 122, together 78% of the 1949–2019 total. Other months except January–March also have landfalls. Hong Kong’s own window is May–November, most likely July–September. Direct hits on inland cities are rare; remnant rain is not. Typhoon Doksuri’s remnants brought 100–600 mm to Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei on 29 July–1 August 2023, with over 600 mm locally and a maximum of 1,003 mm at Lincheng, Hebei (Beijing’s max 744.8 mm at Wangjiayuan, Changping).
Check live tracks days before you fly: typhoon.nmc.cn for the mainland, Hong Kong Observatory for Hong Kong, and Macao SMG (smg.gov.mo) for Macao.
NASA MODIS · Typhoon Doksuri · South China Sea · 26 July 2023Not a YouChina original photo. Same storm. Remnants: 100–600 mm over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei on 29 July–1 August 2023, locally over 600 mm, max 1,003 mm at Lincheng, Hebei. Public domain, NASA GSFC.
Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and the East China coast take most landfalls. Beijing, Xi’an and Chengdu are not in the landfall belt — that is not the same as “no rain.”
National Meteorological Centre typhoon page
Current tracks and warnings for the mainland. Use this instead of a seasonal rule of thumb.
typhoon.nmc.cnHong Kong Observatory current TC warning
Separate warning system from the mainland.
HKO current tropical cyclone warningMacao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG)
Macao’s own tropical-cyclone signals 1/3/8/9/10. Season May–November.
SMG Macao weather| Option | Window | What the records say |
|---|---|---|
| January–March | No landfall record | CMA public service: no typhoon landfall in these three months. |
| April–June | Possible | Outside the peak. Still in the April–December landfall season. |
| July–September | Peak — 78% | 1949–2019: 130 + 130 + 122 landfalls. September is often the most intense. |
| October–December | Possible | Still in season. Not “almost only” July–September. |
| Hong Kong / Macao | May–November | HKO climate for Hong Kong: cyclones may strike May–November; July–September most likely. Macao: check SMG (signals 1/3/8/9/10). |
January–March
April–June
July–September
October–December
Hong Kong / Macao
When someone asked whether to cancel a China trip because of a typhoon, replies often said the country is large and Shanghai is not the same as a southern landfall — look at the city you are actually flying to. A common mix-up in the forum, not a forecast. Use NMC, HKO or SMG on the day.
Traveler reports from public forums, not official rules
Direct landfall on inland cities is rare. Remnant rain is real: Doksuri’s leftovers produced 100–600 mm (locally over 600 mm; max 1,003 mm at Lincheng, Hebei) over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei from 29 July to 1 August 2023.
Not as a blanket rule. Peak is July–September. Check typhoon.nmc.cn as the dates approach instead of cancelling the coast by default.
Mainland: https://typhoon.nmc.cn. Hong Kong: https://www.hko.gov.hk/en/wxinfo/currwx/tc.htm. Macao: https://www.smg.gov.mo/en.
Check the airline and ferry notice on the warning day. Leave slack in a July–September coastal itinerary — there is no standard one- or two-day shutdown to plan around.
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